Former managing directors at BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, have weighed in on the approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US, suggesting that the process is now more a question of ‘when’ rather than ‘if.’

During a panel discussion on ETFs at CCData’s Digital Asset Summit in London, former BlackRock managing director Steven Schoenfield, presently at the helm of MarketVector Indexes, postulated a timeline for the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.

His prognosis? A mere “three to six months.”

Former BlackRock managing director Steven Schoenfield gives the U.S. SEC “three to six months” before it approves a Bitcoin spot ETF and believes spot ETF approval may result in a “$150 to $200 billion inflow” into Bitcoin investment products over three years. Decrypt reported.…

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) October 4, 2023

Shifting Tides In The Bitcoin ETF Landscape

This relatively short timeframe marks a noteworthy shift in Schoenfield’s outlook. Previously, the ex-BlackRock Executive projected a longer “nine to twelve months” window. The change in perspective can be attributed to the SEC’s recent decisions.

Rather than outright rejecting spot Bitcoin ETF applications, as has been customary in the past, Shoenfield stated the regulator is now soliciting comments from the industry, suggesting a more collaborative approach, which the MarketVector CEO called a “significant improvement in the dialogue.”

Schoenfield noted another significant factor influencing the potential spot Bitcoin ETF approval: the Grayscale lawsuit. The SEC’s defeat in this legal skirmish implies a greater likelihood of Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust transitioning into an ETF format.

With its colossal $9.42 trillion AUM, BlackRock appears to be a frontrunner in the race for a spot in Bitcoin ETF approval. The firm boasts a noteworthy track record, with a success rate of 575-1 for SEC ETF approvals.

Fun fact: BlackRock’s record of getting ETFs approved by the SEC is 575-1. That’s another reason this is so big, they don’t play around. https://t.co/f7YIhGRmLf

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) June 16, 2023

During the same summit, Martin Bednall, another ex-BlackRock director and now CEO of Jacobi Asset Management, opined that BlackRock’s industry stature—both in terms of branding and resources—could potentially grant it an edge in securing the spot Bitcoin ETF approval.

A Competitive Arena: BlackRock’s Position In The Crypto Domain

Yet, it’s not all smooth sailing for BlackRock. Schoenfield offered a counter perspective, highlighting the intense competition awaiting the financial behemoth in the realm of tradable digital assets. Schoenfield pointed out, predicting a robust challenge for the asset management giant:

There’s a good half dozen, maybe eight or nine, other firms deeply committed to tradable digital assets. They’ve all got applications in and some are actually much closer to the crypto ecosystem than BlackRock. So I think Blackrock will be in for quite a fight.

Furthermore, Schoenfield underlined the potentially massive impact of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval on the crypto market. His firm’s calculations project a roughly “$150 to $200 billion inflow” into Bitcoin investment vehicles over the next three years.

According to Schoenfield, such an inflow could dramatically amplify the assets under management for Bitcoin products.

Featured image from Shutterstock, Chart from TradingView