Ethereum is on the track of registering more losses eves as it trades 196 percent higher on a year-to-date timeframe.

A pseudonymous analyst highlighted a string of technical and fundamental catalysts that could push the second-largest crypto lower. He first noted that ETH/USD is repeating a market setup from the mid-2019, wherein the pair early rallied strongly but then pared a majority of its gains.

ETH/USD cycle from 2019 showing its massive downside correction following a major rally. Source: TradingView.com

Ethereum performed strongly in 2020, especially in the aftermath of March 2020’s global market rout led by the fast-spreading COVID-19 pandemic. Its gains surpassed even that of Bitcoin, the top cryptocurrency, because of its parent blockchain’s growing involvement with the booming stablecoin and decentralized finance sector.

But more recently, ETH/USD showed signs of bullish exhaustion. The pair corrected lower by as much as 36.6 percent from its YTD high at $488.95. It attempted to bounce back but a strong selling pressure near the $385-400 area kept its bullish retracement tryouts under wraps.

The pseudonymous analyst eyed the repeated pullbacks from the said range as a signal of the beginning of bearish momentum. He said that Ethereum has topped out already in August 2019, and is now amid “reversal stages,” just like it was in 2019.

Adding further, the analyst pointed out the catalysts behind his bearish bias for the Ethereum market.

Higher Fees

Ethereum fees are “dangerously high,” said the analyst as the gas prices on the cryptocurrency’s blockchain network shot past 700 gwei this Thursday. The average gas fee runs around 490 gwei, while the market considers 540 gwei as “too high.”

Higher transaction costs reduce a blockchain’s appeal among developers and project handlers alike. In Ethereum’s case, the industry is waiting for the blockchain to switch from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake in the coming months.

The migration expects to reduce its transaction fees and delays.

Nevertheless, other projects are rivaling up to offer an alternative to Ethereum’s gas costs. At the beginning of September, the Binance exchange launched a new Ethereum-compatible Binance Smart Chain to mark a direct competition with the PoW blockchain.

Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao openly invited decentralized finance projects to migrate from Ethereum to their chain.

Of course, love to see moe DeFi projects migrating over, and lessen the load on ETH, and hopefully, reduce the gas fees there a little too.

— CZ Binance (@cz_binance) September 13, 2020

The announcement helped Binance’s native cryptocurrency, BNB, surge higher by 76 percent tops. Binance Chain now DeFi projects, BurgerSwap and SushiSwap, on its chain.

Bearish Ethereum Technicals

As its rivalry with other blockchain projects grew, Ethereum also faced risks in the form of bearish technicals.

The pseudonymous analyst spotted a divergence between ETH/USD price and momentum oscillator. In retrospect, the pair rose higher and left behind a trail of higher highs. Nevertheless, its momentum indicators – the Relative Strength Indicator and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence – formed lower highs.

The price chart of Ethereum. source: CryptoHamster

The analyst also noted a steady decline in the daily trade volumes in the Ethereum market, signaling that fewer traders are actively involved in the buying and selling of the ETH tokens.

He expected ETH/USD to fall towards $200 in the coming session.