- As Bitcoin maintains its positive correlation with the S&P 500, a top analyst has predicted an all-time high for the U.S. benchmark.
- Research firm DataTrek published a note earlier this week that the S&P would rise by another 14 percent by the end of 2020.
- The prediction raised the possibilities of Bitcoin retesting its all-time high of $20,000.
A top analyst sees the S&P 500 breaching its record high by the end of this year. And the prediction has left Bitcoin’s market bias in a similar headspace.
New York-based research firm DataTrek said in a Monday note that the S&P 500’s trading activity since March 23 is almost identical to its performance back in 2019.
For instance, the U.S. benchmark index was 37.1 percent up 58 days after it bottomed in March 2009. And in 2020, it was similarly trading 37.1 percent higher, 58 days after it established its yearly low on March 23. There were also some differences between the two fractals that made DataTrek’s analogy less than perfect.
“On April 14, the 2020 rally got ahead of 2009 by 11 full points (+27.2% from the lows vs +16.4% in 2009). The 2020 rally then gave up all those gains in the next 5 days,” the firm said.
Nevertheless, the overall takeaway remained optimistic about a continuation in the stock market rally, with DataTrek targeting an additional 14 percent upside move from the current levels. That would put the S&P 500 at 3,588, its highest level on records.
Bitcoin to $18K
A rally in the S&P 500 does not precisely benefit Bitcoin directly. The two markets remain entirely different in terms of their functionality and backings. However, the ongoing pandemic-induced global financial crisis has balanced the odds.
Bitcoin and S&P 500 have formed an uncanny positive correlation against the current macroeconomic backdrop, with a top analyst PlanB measuring their R-squared value at 95 percent. The proximity between the two has grown since the March 2020’s global market rout.
Traders enter the Bitcoin market typically to secure high-yields in a shorter period. Meanwhile, the same retail investors are speculating on an otherwise institutionally-laded S&P 500 market to hunt quick gains. The sentiment has made the U.S. benchmark an erratic and volatile index, altogether.
Conclusion
If the correlation sustains, then a rally in the S&P 500 index, as indicated by DataTrek, could leave Bitcoin in a similar bullish territory. PlanB believes the cryptocurrency would surge towards $18,000 based on the same assumptions.
“Current S&P level implies BTC [at] $18K (or S&P to go down),” the creator of the popular Stock-to-Flow model tweeted Wednesday.