It’s been a volatile past seven days for Bitcoin.
After peaking at $10,100 some 48 hours ago, the cryptocurrency took a dive on Saturday and Sunday morning, tanking $2,000 in about the span of 20 hours. In a dramatic sell-off, Bitcoin fell as low as $8,100, crushed by a seeming stop run that was reflected in the $250 million worth of BitMEX long liquidations.
Chart from TradingView.com
While prices have recovered by a handful of percentage points as key technical levels have held, a prominent trader is charting a deeper drop for Bitcoin. The trader in question is one that called Bitcoin’s retracement to $6,400 in the middle of 2019 when everyone else was expecting BTC to “moon.”
Bitcoin Could Revisit $6,400: Accurate Analyst
Bitcoin may have printed a confluence of positive technical signals, but a top analyst is expecting the lead cryptocurrency to begin a strong retracement.
The analyst — one that has been historically accurate in analyzing Bitcoin — pointed to a fractal of a previous rally in BTC’s history that is structurally similar to the one we just saw.
This fractal predicts that the cryptocurrency will fall to $6,400 in the coming weeks, which would be a 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement of the rally from the $3,700 lows. A move to $6,400 would mark another 25% worth of losses from the current price point.
Chart from “Dave the Wave” (@davthewave on Twitter). The chart shows a fractal of a previous parabolic run-up in Bitcoin’s history, much similar to the one we just saw, and predicts a drop towards the $6,000s as aforementioned.
Crypto Market Still Macro Bullish, Analysts Reckon
While the trader expects a return to the ever-important $6,400 level, he remains macro bullish, as do others.
One analyst suggested that there is a confluence of four fundamental factors that in convergence are a potential perfect storm. The analyst went as far as to say that he’s so convinced by these factors that he is “really struggling to see a bearish case” for Bitcoin here.
The fundamental trends are as follows:
Bitcoin’s block reward halving is currently two days away. Analysts expect this event to be widely bullish for Bitcoin as assuming demand stays the same in the wake of the halving, the decrease in mined supply should result in higher prices.
Bitcoin’s narrative of being a hedge against economic downturns is “showing potential.”
The cryptocurrency has seen a strong recovery from the March lows, rallying more than 100%.
BTC’s “exchange dynamics are shifting,” presumably referencing the decrease in order book supply due to long-term holders and the increase in buying activity on spot exchanges.
The bullish macro sentiment has been echoed by Fundstrat Global Advisors, a New York-based research firm. The firm’s co-founder recently identified four macro tailwinds for Bitcoin, while an analyst at the firm suggested that the cryptocurrency could hit $14,350 within the next 12 months.
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