While this over 7% surge is already impressive in and of itself, data suggests that crypto traders are currently expecting BTC to surge even higher in the coming weeks. The question is: will such a surge happen?
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Bitcoin Will Trend Higher, Options Traders Conclude
According to a recent observation by Three Arrows Capital’s Su Zhu, who cited Deribit options data, traders are aggressively skewed for the February 14th contract expiry, suggesting that the “options market is expecting big moves up [over] the next 7 days.”
Aggressive skew for next Fri 14feb (Valentine’s day) expiry, the options mkt is expecting big moves up the next 7days https://t.co/iK1IOBfoeG
— Su Zhu (@zhusu) February 7, 2020
Analysts and investors across the board largely agree with this lofty sentiment, citing a flurry of positive trends over the past few days to back their thought that BTC will soon rocket even higher than it already has.
Rob Sluymer — an analyst at New York-based market research firm Fundstrat Global Advisors — said in a research note that Bitcoin is likely to soon trade in a range of $10,000 to $11,000 — 2% and 12.2% higher than the current price of $9,800, respectively.
As to what will push BTC to the aforementioned prices, Slyumer cited the fact that Bitcoin often retraces 50% to 62% of large moves, referencing the 50% to 62% retracement range of the bear trend that brought Bitcoin from $14,000 to $6,400. He added:
“Bitcoin appears to be in a textbook re-acceleration. [The pullback from $11,000 is likely to be shallow], then followed by resuming its longer-term uptrend into year-end.”
There’s also Mike Novogratz of Galaxy Digital who wrote on Twitter that “Crypto is bid. Period.” Bid, in this context at least, meaning there are buyers in the cryptocurrency market.
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There is Downside Risk
While there are the aforementioned upside catalysts, Bitcoin is flashing some signs that downside is possible.
Per previous reports from NewsBTC, the TD Sequential indicator is forming a 13 candle on the daily chart. This is notable as the indicator printed such candles when Bitcoin hit $20,000 in December 2017, when BTC cratered to $3,150 on December 14th of 2018, at the $14,000 top in June of 2019, and most recently at the $6,400 bottom BTC saw in December.
#BITCOIN update. Recommending selling long today and go neutral. Maybe a little early with pending DeMark Sequential Countdown 13. Up 52% from buy recommendation in December when there were DeMark buy Countdown 13’s cc @DTAPCAP @RaoulGMI @MarkYusko @APompliano pic.twitter.com/m0D9wpjOSm
— Thomas Thornton (@TommyThornton) February 7, 2020
If the 13 forms, the historical precedent of the indicator’s accuracy would suggest that BTC is in for a strong pullback over the next couple of weeks. While Hedge Fund Telemetry’s Thomas Thornton, who first made this observation, didn’t give a target with the indicator in mind, popular crypto analyst Mayne on Twitter recently said that he expects to soon see an over $1,000 pullback, which would imply prices in the $8,000s.
Also, the BitMEX funding rate just this week printed a funding rate above 0.12% every eight hours. This level of funding rate has historically been a precursor to relatively large drops.
Crypto analyst Alex Krüger noted more specifically that every time the aforementioned funding rate was seen, Bitcoin dropped an average of 7% in the five days that followed.
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